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How predictions & risk work

Intelligence scores every tracked shipment as its events arrive. Two different questions drive everything you see. Keep them separate and the dashboard reads cleanly:

  1. Will it arrive by the promised date? This is the ETA and on-time prediction (p_late). It drives the map colors and the "delivers today" verdict.
  2. Will it exceed the carrier's transit-time SLA? This is the SLA breach prediction (p_breach and sla_flag). It drives the Intervention Queue and the Act by deadline.

A shipment can be safe on one and at risk on the other.

The risk colors​

The same language is used across every view:

ColorMeaning
GreenOn track or delivered
AmberWatch, some risk building
RedAt risk: likely to miss, or an SLA flag, or already past its promise
GreyPending or pre-transit
BlueIn transit (on the map)

The prediction panel​

Open any shipment (from the Network Map) to see its full model output:

  • ETA: a predicted delivery time with a confidence band (a low-to-high range), and a plain-language verdict for whether it makes today (YES, LIKELY, TOSS-UP, UNLIKELY, NO), with the probability behind it.
  • Transit SLA: the breach flag, P(breach), transit elapsed against the limit, and the last responsible moment (your Act by deadline).
  • No-scan risk: the chance the shipment is stuck (no new scan) over the next several hours.
  • Misroute: whether the scan pattern suggests it has been mis-sorted, with a short explanation.

A WHY note explains the headline in words, for example "past its promised date with no delivery scan." The footer records when it was scored and the model version.

Rescore​

Predictions update as events arrive, but you can force a fresh scoring run with Rescore on a shipment's detail panel. It is useful right after you know something changed.

Doing this over the API​

Every prediction here is available programmatically:

  • GET /v1/shipment-predict?tracking=… returns the same model output.
  • GET /v1/flags returns the Intervention Queue.
  • GET /v1/overview and GET /v1/carriers return the Overview KPIs.

See the API Reference.

Next steps​